What Might John Bogle Expect From Today’s Market?


The late John Bogle formulated a long-term market return forecast based on “Occam’s Razor.” Although Bogle had mixed results, the approach is interesting, instructive and provides a glimpse into what we might expect for the U.S. market over the coming 10 years. The model suggests Base Case, Pessimistic and Optimistic annual returns ranging from 1.0% to 6.4% for the S&P 500 index. Forecasting and timing are not foundations for successful investing. We should all be skeptical of forecasts and adhere to time-tested, long-term principles. Read the full article at Seeking Alpha.